WOLNA DROGA: Rating to nie ranking

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Rating kredytowy (ang. credit rating) to kredytowa ocena klasyfikacyjna oceniająca i kategoryzująca poziom zdolności kredytowej danego podmiotu, długu lub zobowiązania finansowego lub emitenta takich długów lub zobowiązań finansowych.

Może ona być dokonywana przez niezależną, wyspecjalizowaną instytucję (agencję ratingową) i ma wówczas charakter publiczny, zewnętrzny lub instytucję finansową (np. bank) i ma wówczas charakter poufny, wewnętrzny.

Angielskie pojęcie rating w słownikach tłumaczone jest przeważnie jako: „ocena”, „oznacznik”, „wskaźnik”, „indykator”, „wartość”, „znamionowana klasa”, „pozycja”, a niekiedy jako po prostu ranking. Jednakże uwzględniając funkcje i sposób ustalania ratingu, nie można go utożsamiać z rankingiem. Rating bowiem, to pojęcie o znacznie głębszej wymowie ekonomicznej niż ranking. Jeśli ranking można ogólnie określić, jako „uszeregowanie”, „klasyfikacja” według różnych kryteriów, np. wielkości obrotów, zysku, kapitału itp., to istotą ratingu są złożone, syntetyczne oceny objętych nimi podmiotów.

Agencja ratingowa S&P obniżyła rating Polski, a Agencja Fitch utrzymała rating Polski bez zmian. Zatem do sprawy należy podchodzić spokojnie. Widać, że decyzja agencji S&P wynikała z przesłanek pozaekonomicznych; Warto przypomnieć, że w zeszłym tygodniu Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy zakończył przegląd, po którym uznał, że Polska ma mocne fundamenty makroekonomiczne i może dalej korzystać z jego elastycznej linii kredytowej. 18 stycznia br. opublikowany został szerszy raport w tej sprawie. MFW podkreśla w nim, że nasza gospodarka po cyklicznym spowolnieniu zaczyna odzyskiwać siły.

Inna agencja ratingowa – Fitch – tego samego dnia utrzymała rating dla Polski na poziomie A. Co ważne, w aktualnym raporcie S&P nie zmieniła ocen Polski w żadnym z kluczowych kryteriów dla oceny ratingowej. Jednocześnie, jako silny punkt wskazała politykę monetarną. Bank Światowy w tym tygodniu podwyższył prognozę wzrostu gospodarczego dla Polski do poziomu 3,7% z 3,6%. Te dane wyróżniają pozytywnie Polskę na tle całej Europy. Dobrą ocenę wiarygodności Polski potwierdzają wyniki sprzedaży obligacji z 7 stycznia 2016 r. Wiele krajów UE miało do czynienia z obniżaniem ratingów z różnych powodów i nie wpłynęło to na ich gospodarki. Nie ma co dramatyzować.

Agencja ratingowa Standard&Poors, to prywatna firma mediowa, a jej analizy i rankingi mają wagę tekstów dziennikarskich, a nie prawdy objawionej – to ocena kluczowych pracowników tej agencji. „Jesteśmy dziennikarzami finansowymi, nie ponosimy odpowiedzialności za nasze opinie” – tłumaczyła się w 2005 r. Rita M. Bolger, główny prawnik Standard & Poor’s przed Kongresem USA. Taka linia obrony pozwoliła S&P uniknąć miliardowych odszkodowań dla inwestorów, którzy dużo stracili kierując się opinią tej agencji na temat Enronu. Warto też przypomnieć, że S&P ma na swoim sumieniu różne, trudne do zrozumienia decyzje, łącznie z decyzją obniżającą rating Stanów Zjednoczonych.

Decyzja S&P jest krytykowana i niezrozumiała dla wielu ekonomistów, także tych dalekich i krytycznych wobec rządów PiS, jak np. prof. Jerzy Osiatyński, członek RPP i były minister w rządach Tadeusza Mazowieckiego i Hanny Suchockiej, który powiedział: – Przykłady obniżania ratingów w innych krajach: 2013 – Agencja ratingowa Ftich obniżyła notę Francji, 2013 – Agencja Standard&Poor’s obniżyła rating Włoch, 2013 – Moody’s obniżył rating Wielkiej Brytanii, 2012 – Standard & Poor’s obniżył rating Hiszpanii, 2011 – Standard & Poor’s obniżył rating Belgii.

Nie ma dostatecznego uzasadnienia obniżenia ratingu Polski. Budżet na 2016 rok nie zawiera pozycji, które mogą budzić wątpliwości, co do swojej realności. Natomiast agencja S&P w przeszłości podejmowała już „trudne do zrozumienia” decyzje.

Jednocześnie Prof. Osiatyński odniósł się do gwałtownego wzrostu kursu euro (w piątek, 15 stycznia  wieczorem, skoczył on do 4,48 zł), stwierdzając, że osłabienie złotego ma charakter przejściowy. Wiele wskazuje na to, że złotówka jest o wiele silniejsza nawet w stosunku do tego kursu, jaki był wcześniej, przed tą decyzją Standard & Poors. Patrząc na wskaźniki efektywnego kursu wymiany, widać, że złoty jest niedoszacowany. Jego siła nabywcza jest znacznie większa. I tego moim zdaniem należy się trzymać.

| Piotr Król, poseł RP

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